First introduced by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in a 1979 paper, the planning fallacy describes a type of cognitive bias that leads us to be overly optimistic about our capabilities and over-reliant on intuition when it comes to making predictions about the future.
In other words, you believe you can finish a task more quickly than your past experience has repeatedly demonstrated it will take you.
When you’re thinking about time needed to pursue a grant, you need to be realistic and—dare I say it—perhaps a tad pessimistic. The shortest distance between two points may be a straight line, but project progress is rarely linear. It comes in fits and starts and happens between distractions, tangents, and urgent tasks that pop up seemingly out of nowhere. In the end, it looks more like the meandering path on an old cartoon treasure map than it does an arrow.
As you evaluate your timeframes, you need to build in contingencies that allow you some leeway to deal with random things that pop up or plans that go awry.
Remember: Everything always takes longer than you think it will.
Let’s return to the scenario I opened the article with. Three weeks to assemble a grant with a potential award of up to $1 million. Let’s say your grant writer believes they can finish the first drafts of all the written components—narrative, implementation plan, and logic model—in 20 hours. Assuming another three hours to make revisions after getting comments from reviewers and to do a final read-through puts their total writing/revising time at 23 hours.
Better plan on a total of 26 hours, just to be safe.
Grantor due date on a Friday? Make your goal to submit on Wednesday of the same week. That way, if something goes wrong during the online submission, you’re not right against the deadline.
You get the idea.